I hope it will be Tony Stark. I think RDJ is just about done with playing the character -- he's been Tony Stark for 10 years now. If you include
Spider-Man: Homecoming (but not cameos like at the end of
Incredible Hulk), he'll have played Tony Stark eight times. That's more times than Roger Moore played James Bond. I also think Tony's death would have the greatest impact on the MCU and shake things up the most.
Of course, Steve Rogers could die. I think that would be less impactful than Tony Stark dying though -- Steve Rogers dying doesn't put Stark Industries into play, for example. Nor does it bring the funding of the Avengers into question. Both characters could get a Big Damn Hero Moment out of heroic sacrifice to beat Thanos, but I think the smart play is killing Tony off for the story opportunities it creates. Right now, status quo in the MCU is: Tony Stark is the leader and finacier of the Avengers. Steve Rogers is a rogue vigilante operating outside of international law.
If Steve dies and Tony lives, then very little changes. The
Good Soldier fell on the battlefield, a honorable death in service, redeeming him in the eyes of the public. The Avengers continue on, lead by Tony Stark, with Tony Stark's money paying their bills. Other than giving Steve a unneeded redemption arc (does anyone in the
audience think Steve requires redemption? Are we not all pretty much in agreement that Steve was right and Tony was wrong?), this serves little purpose. If Tony dies and Steve lives, everything changes. In a time of crises The Avengers have no official leader and their default leader, Steve, is an international criminal. The Avengers funding is now entirely dependent on Pepper Potts a) willingness to foot the bills and b) ability to maintain her position as CEO of Stark Industries (the odds of the Board of Directors seeking new leadership seems high, given the broad perception that Potts is just an appendage of Tony Stark).
That said:
CHARACTER ODDS OF SURVIVING THANOS
Tony Stark (Iron Man) |
1:200 |
Steve Rogers (Captain America) |
1:50 |
Bruce Banner (The Hulk) |
100:1 |
Thor Odinson |
100:1 |
Natasha Romanov (Black Widow) |
10:1 |
Clint Barton (Hawkeye) |
5:1 |
James Rhodes (War Machine) |
5:1 |
Sam Wilson (The Falcon) |
10:1 |
Wanda Maximoff (Scarlet Witch) |
100:1 |
The Vision |
10,000:1 |
James Barnes (The Winter Soldier) |
100:1 |
Scott Lang (Ant-Man) |
500:1 |
Peter Parker (Spider-Man) |
1,000,000,000:1 |
T'Challa (Black Panther) |
1,000,000:1 |
Shuri |
1,000,000:1 |
Any Named Dore Milaje |
1:5 |
M'Baku |
1:100 |
Gamora |
100:1 |
Rocket Raccoon |
100:1 |
Groot |
1,000:1 |
Drax (the Destroyer) |
1:4 |
Mantis |
100:1 |
Nebula |
1:1 |