All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[BeastieRunner]

Actually after Gore he changed his model to focus on the Electoral College vote. He predicted in 2016 that Trump would win Electorally (he also said popularly and was pleasantly surprise to see Hillary take that consolation prize).

Trump's victory in 2016 owes to Lichtman noting he had the Following Keys:
-- Incumbent is not running the election (Obama finished his second term).
-- Ruling Party lost the House in recent Midterms (which the Dems did to the Republicans).
-- One candidate is not as charismatic as the other (Hillary per Lichtman's definition of Charisma having appeal a little outside the base).
-- No major policy change in Obama's second term (as opposed to the Affordable Care Act in the first term)
-- Significant third party challenge (which was there in 2016 with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein)
-- No big foreign policy success*(per Lichtman)

The interesting thing about these keys is that if you look at "No Major policy change in second term" that was when McConnell began his obstructionism and senate supremacy and sent it to high gear, so you can see the impact of his malfeasance there. You also see how important Midterm elections are to holding the WH.

So basically even if Biden and the Dems take the WH and Senate and keep the House. The Midterms of 2022 are absolutely crucial and important for the sake of consolidating the Trump reversal.

At the same time Biden and the Dems need to do major policy initiatives in the next term. Something really big.

* I actually have to question Lichtman's idea of Obama not having foreign policy success in his second term because that was when he launched the Cuban Thaw (which has to be a success since even Trump hasn't undone it fully) as well as the Iran Nuclear Deal (which Trump pulled out of but was surely remarkable at the time).

"Lichtman’s model has successfully predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election from 1984 to present, with the exception of 2000. In the contested election of 2000, the system predicted the popular vote winner, although not actual winners. As a result in 2000, he predicted using his system that Gore would be the next president; Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. In September 2016, the Keys forecast that Donald Trump would win the popular vote in the 2016 election, whereas he lost the popular vote, but won the electoral college."

I think you need to read his stuff more carefully.

But what do I know? It is just splitting hairs at this point.

I would agree Obama had no major foreign policy win in term 2. Cuba is not a major country and was trending that way anyway. It was a layup at best.

[Scott Taylor]

So what do you guys think the biggest single-issue is going to be this election? My money is that its on who the American people think can best lead us out of Corona Virusland.

He's only missed two elections since 1988, 2000 and 2016. Predicted a Gore win (has since changed his model to call the popular vote) and predicted a Trump popular vote win. So I guess half right/wrong on his misses?

Using his model historically, only 1876, 2000, and 2016 are anomalous.

Thats around a 95 percent accuracy in prediction. However in my opinion, the presidential elections changed quite a bit after Nixon. If that theory is correct, then the Lichtman system had 98 percent accuracy in pre-Nixon times and 80 percent accuracy in post-Nixon times. So going forward we could expect that four out of five times his "referendum on the incumbent" rule is still accurate. The closer the election the least likely his prediction is to be accurate due to the electoral college.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

I would agree Obama had no major foreign policy win in term 2. Cuba is not a major country and was trending that way anyway. It was a layup at best.

What would a major foreign policy success be then for Biden and others? I guess the big one would be an Israel-Palestine permanent peace (which isn't gonna happen with Netanyahu still in office). Another one would be say a trade deal like TPP and so on which is going to be super-controversial and something quite a few Dems would not be on board with? Biden is actually a foreign policy wonk.

So what do you guys think the biggest single-issue is going to be this election? My money is that its on who the American people think can best lead us out of Corona Virusland.

Coronavirus and Economy. The two things are linked together. Get Covid under control and restart the economy and solve the major unemployment crisis.

[Kirby101]

So the story that Trump authorized an extra judicial execution in Oregon is more of the new normal the Media accepts?
Is there a 5th Ave. in Portland?

[InformationGeek]

And here's Senator Perdue being racist.

BREAKING: GOP Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) mocks Sen. Kamala Harris' name as "Kamala-mala-mala whatever" at Trump rally in Georgia.

[worstblogever]

And here's Senator Perdue being racist.

They really are starting to "other" Senator Harris now to get the racist sentiments they build against Obama up, hoping it might stop her from running in 2024.

And it's obvious. And disgusting.

[GindyPosts]

They really are starting to "other" Senator Harris now to get the racist sentiments they build against Obama up, hoping it might stop her from running in 2024.

And it's obvious. And disgusting.

It's bad enough they're going after prominent people in politics, but it's worse when they go after folks that they know have no chance of ever winning any election, 'cuz what is your point exactly?

Jeannine Lake, two-time Democratic nominee for Indiana's 6th congressional district, is being harassed.

[GindyPosts]

To try to
Insult someone by considering a guy to be “ Mr Rogers” is a shame.

Rogers was awesome and a great human being.

Rogers was very religious and conservative (in fact, he himself said the reason he got into TV was due to senseless programs he watched, like people throwing pies at each other, and felt television could be an instrument for much more wholesome programming), but he was an open-minded and respectful person. And that included understanding that society progresses forward as time went on.

Reactionists (like those who buy into Trumpism) don't want society to move forward. They want it to go backward, back to a time where only certain folks had influence and affluence, and can't wrap it around their heads that life can't work that way, and when places have managed to force those policies, very bad things happen.

[GindyPosts]

So what do you guys think the biggest single-issue is going to be this election? My money is that its on who the American people think can best lead us out of Corona Virusland.

For Trump voters; it's always going to be guns, immigration, and abortion. Same as it ever was.

For people voting Biden and those still on the fence, it's about who's going to handle the COVID-19 crisis and deal with the economy. Both are joined at the hip, unfortunately, as COVID-19 affects the ability for people to work and travel, and that has caused our economy to suffer. Which means we gotta think about short-term solutions to keep people sheltered and fed, but also long-term solutions to ensure that something like this never happens again to our country.

[Robotman]

They really are starting to "other" Senator Harris now to get the racist sentiments they build against Obama up, hoping it might stop her from running in 2024.

And it's obvious. And disgusting.

That worked out so well for them last time.

Alienated POC, helped Obama become one of the most popular presidents of all time (“overcoming hate” and all that) , and it cemented the GOP was the party of racists. They really have learned nothing. If Trump gets crushed next month I wonder if they’ll double and triple down on white nationalism.

[Scott Taylor]

For Trump voters; it's always going to be guns, immigration, and abortion. Same as it ever was.

For people voting Biden and those still on the fence, it's about who's going to handle the COVID-19 crisis and deal with the economy. Both are joined at the hip, unfortunately, as COVID-19 affects the ability for people to work and travel, and that has caused our economy to suffer. Which means we gotta think about short-term solutions to keep people sheltered and fed, but also long-term solutions to ensure that something like this never happens again to our country.

That division is game playing, political hay. Most people don't fall into either camp, and just want what seems best, don't kid yourself.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

That worked out so well for them last time.

Alienated POC, helped Obama become one of the most popular presidents of all time (“overcoming hate” and all that) , and it cemented the GOP was the party of racists. They really have learned nothing. If Trump gets crushed next month I wonder if they’ll double and triple down on white nationalism.

Defeat in the midterms in 2022, that might convince them that their brand of politics is done.

But it will take repeated defeats. 2020 -- 2022 midterms -- 2024.

[babyblob]

That worked out so well for them last time.

Alienated POC, helped Obama become one of the most popular presidents of all time (“overcoming hate” and all that) , and it cemented the GOP was the party of racists. They really have learned nothing. If Trump gets crushed next month I wonder if they’ll double and triple down on white nationalism.

Of course they will double down on it.

I know a lot of people are hoping that a crushing defeat of Trump and his lackeys will cause the Republican party to change direction and adjust their platform. But that will never happen. Even if Trump loses his biggest backer Mitch will win and still be in the Senate and try to pull the strings as best he can if the GOP lose the Senate.

Also The Republicans wont see the loss as a statement on their policies and bat **** crazy things they have been doing the last four years with Trump. No their loss will be because of Voter fraud and cheating. They will double down on not working with Dems, Blocking Biden at every turn filing law suits that will get dragged in front of a GOD controlled SC, and upping the ante on voter suppression in states they still control.

[The Chou Lives]

Rogers was very religious and conservative (in fact, he himself said the reason he got into TV was due to senseless programs he watched, like people throwing pies at each other, and felt television could be an instrument for much more wholesome programming), but he was an open-minded and respectful person. And that included understanding that society progresses forward as time went on.

Reactionists (like those who buy into Trumpism) don't want society to move forward. They want it to go backward, back to a time where only certain folks had influence and affluence, and can't wrap it around their heads that life can't work that way, and when places have managed to force those policies, very bad things happen.

Oh I know. Just stating that you can be reasonable and conservative. **** the current right is openly opposed to.

[The Chou Lives]

Of course they will double down on it.

I know a lot of people are hoping that a crushing defeat of Trump and his lackeys will cause the Republican party to change direction and adjust their platform. But that will never happen. Even if Trump loses his biggest backer Mitch will win and still be in the Senate and try to pull the strings as best he can if the GOP lose the Senate.

Also The Republicans wont see the loss as a statement on their policies and bat **** crazy things they have been doing the last four years with Trump. No their loss will be because of Voter fraud and cheating. They will double down on not working with Dems, Blocking Biden at every turn filing law suits that will get dragged in front of a GOD controlled SC, and upping the ante on voter suppression in states they still control.

This.

It breaks my heart ( truly) that the republicans of the now are white supremacy bastards who only care for their own agenda which is pretty much whitey Christian Taliban **** at this point. If Trump loses it will not change, those still in their offices will keep the hate, Fox will keep pumping out poison, and Biden will get red tape from the GOP. It will take time for real change and that’s the best case situation and next election the GOap will send some other neo butter of the house of Trump to try to go back to their self destructive and greed riddled agenda.

There is no salvation in them anymore, they are too proud or uncaring to fix the damage. T got them filthy rich. Especially Fox News and how they paraded him to his supporters, network good it is. Especially since as president he rather tweet or do interviews with Fox, than actually fix the country.

Seeing how Black people are pro Trump on a YouTube now. Find it as it’s and no, they are black. My issue is, Trump never once gave remorse or feels for the people who died from violence (police or otherwise) plus the fact Covid kills more minorities than whites. Because you know, less access to care.

Also in the 80s when that woman was raped and innocent black youngsters were detained, not charged yet. Trump rallied Tuesday NYers ten on the spot for their blood md they did jail. They wee only released when one man who did the deed confessed.

Yeah Trump complains about the white supremacy stuff. Yes he claims Biden is racist ( he did do bad laws.)

But, Trumps hands are dirty too and did it when he was just a young man who was in business and just wanted to affect the news. That’s what Trump does, he only wants to be culturally there. But most of the **** is not that great, at best.