All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Theleviathan]

Bernie Sanders endorsing Hillary Clinton and campaigning for her is what convinced me to phonebank for Hillary. I went out of State to help her because I knew staying in California was pointless.

People are still mad about 2016 but it does no one any good to continue dwelling on it. I disagree about blaming Bernie for Hillary losing in 2016 but that's not what we need to be talking about now. Focus on the future.

I would caution you're getting a bit ahead of yourself. Bernie leads Iowa, but the margin is very tight. The number of polls finding him leading overall, or even outside of Iowa, are few.

His numbers continue to be very poor in swing states, unless that changes I hope you're wrong that he's the nominee.

[Theleviathan]

Biden wins the nomination and his electability argument fails and he loses to Trump, can we finally admit the centrist Democrat electability arguments have failed, because that could happen.

Centrist Democrats have failed, they're also the only ones that have succeeded in the last 50 years. So...no, we can't admit that. It would be false.

[The Overlord]

Centrist Democrats have failed, they're also the only ones that have succeeded in the last 50 years. So...no, we can't admit that. It would be false.

Except the people who still worry about someone like Bernie or even Watren being too left wing, they site the McGovern campaign and that was almost 50 years ago now. Times change. A lot of people lost faith in Third Way politics, the stuff Clinton and Biden are pushing.

If your argument is electability, your guy has to win and just making excuses why he didn't seems really weak.

[Tami]

JUST NOW: @ewarren
told me — in response to reporting that Sanders has gone negative on her in IA — that she “was disappointed to hear that Bernie is sending his volunteers out to trash me.”

Twitter Link

[Superbat]

I would caution you're getting a bit ahead of yourself. Bernie leads Iowa, but the margin is very tight. The number of polls finding him leading overall, or even outside of Iowa, are few.

His numbers continue to be very poor in swing states, unless that changes I hope you're wrong that he's the nominee.

Bernie's biggest hurdle is that people don't think he has a shot at winning the nomination. People like him, he has the highest favorability of anyone running but there are so many people that think voting for him in the primary is pointless because he's not going to beat Biden.

That will change after Iowa and New Hampshire. Unless Bernie finishes a distant 3rd in Iowa, he's the got the best chance at winning the nomination.

[Theleviathan]

Except the people who still worry about someone like Bernie or even Watren being too left wing, they site the McGovern campaign and that was almost 50 years ago now. Times change. A lot of people lost faith in Third Way politics, the stuff Clinton and Biden are pushing.

If your argument is electability, your guy has to win and just making excuses why he didn't seems really weak.

If your argument isn't "My guy can be elected"....why should I even give a rip about the candidate? Liberals love to bash electability, but it's a preposterous criticism when you think about it. Bernie is only in the conversation because there appears to be a chance he is electable. Someone like, say, Beto O'Rourke is clearly out for exactly that reason.

Here is a truth, a fact that is indisputable, no left-wing liberal has won a national election for President in many decades. (Longer, if the bar is Warren/Sanders) So when you point at centrists who failed as a justification for your further left candidate, it's a toothless criticism. Yes, Hillary was a centrist who lost. Obama was a centrist who won. So was Clinton. How many Warren/Sanders types can say they won? Right. Zero. So maybe find a different criticism, cuz that one isn't very strong. (Especially because, when we broaden it out to house or senate races across the country like in, say, 2018, it shows very little appetite around the nation for further left candidates. Moderates and centrists win, liberals don't. That's just a reality)

Whatever his strengths are, Bernie does need to show he can win in areas that are critical to winning the Presidency. As of today, his numbers are not strong in that regard so electability is a fair challenge.

[Tami]

Bernie's biggest hurdle is that people don't think he has a shot at winning the nomination. People like him, he has the highest favorability of anyone running but there are so many people that think voting for him in the primary is pointless because he's not going to beat Biden.

That will change after Iowa and New Hampshire. Unless Bernie finishes a distant 3rd in Iowa, he's the got the best chance at winning the nomination.

Aside from WBE I know at least one other person who quickly soured on Bernie back in 2016. I bet there are many more out there.

[Tami]

Bernie campaign slams Warren as candidate of the elite

Twitter Link

[Theleviathan]

So Bernie's own people are using "electability" as their criticism. That's funny.

[The Overlord]

If your argument isn't "My guy can be elected"....why should I even give a rip about the candidate? Liberals love to bash electability, but it's a preposterous criticism when you think about it. Bernie is only in the conversation because there appears to be a chance he is electable. Someone like, say, Beto O'Rourke is clearly out for exactly that reason.

Here is a truth, a fact that is indisputable, no left-wing liberal has won a national election for President in many decades. (Longer, if the bar is Warren/Sanders) So when you point at centrists who failed as a justification for your further left candidate, it's a toothless criticism. Yes, Hillary was a centrist who lost. Obama was a centrist who won. So was Clinton. How many Warren/Sanders types can say they won? Right. Zero. So maybe find a different criticism, cuz that one isn't very strong. (Especially because, when we broaden it out to house or senate races across the country like in, say, 2018, it shows very little appetite around the nation for further left candidates. Moderates and centrists win, liberals don't. That's just a reality)

Whatever his strengths are, Bernie does need to show he can win in areas that are critical to winning the Presidency. As of today, his numbers are not strong in that regard so electability is a fair challenge.

My point is electability is a non argument, who determines whether Biden or Bernie is more electable than the other? I think this focus on "electability" and nothing else is a good way to lose:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.van...-elections/amp

I would dare anyone to make a case for Biden being a better choice than Bernie that does not involve electability and Biden not being Trump.

And when is the last time the Democrats did not run a centrist for President? It seems like a BS argument to say only centrists can win, when the Dems have tried nothing but centrists for 30 years, how do you know a left winger would lose, where is your basis for that?

[Theleviathan]

My point is electability is a non argument, who determines whether Biden or Bernie is more electable than the other? I think this focus on "electability" and nothing else is a good way to lose:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.van...-elections/amp

I would dare anyone to make a case for Biden being a better choice than Bernie that does not involve electability and Biden not being Trump.

Bernie does not poll well in swing states. Biden, as of today, is polling much better in those states. Is that an electability argument?

I guess I don't care, that's what matters most.

[The Overlord]

Bernie does not poll well in swing states. Biden, as of today, is polling much better in those states. Is that an electability argument?

I guess I don't care, that's what matters most.

How was Hillary Clinton polling in those swing states in the primaries?

I would find this argument more convincing if it wasn't the same one Hillary Clinton used in 2016 and she lost.

I think if Biden had a campaign that ran on electability and something else, that would be convincing than running solely on electability and nothing else:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YD7NYwpbGOk&t=1221s

Let me ask you something, if Biden wins, would he keep the detention camps open in the spirit of bipartisanship or would he close them?

[worstblogever]

Aside from WBE I know at least one other person who quickly soured on Bernie back in 2016. I bet there are many more out there.

Oh, I know quite a few who did.

[InformationGeek]

What did she do to Obama?

Clearly nothing bad enough to prevent him from becoming president.

[Theleviathan]

How was Hillary Clinton polling in those swing states in the primaries?

I would find this argument more convincing if it wasn't the same one Hillary Clinton used in 2016 and she lost.

I think if Biden had a campaign that ran on electability and something else, that would be convincing than running solely on electability and nothing else:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YD7NYwpbGOk&t=1221s

Let me ask you something, if Biden wins, would he keep the detention camps open in the spirit of bipartisanship or would he close them?

It's hard to compare Hillary then to Bernie now because of the primaries. It's hard to compare any of the candidates yet until the field clears out. The data is just too fuzzy at this point.

My basis for that argument is how each primary candidate is polling in swing states. You can look here and sort by state to see what I'm talking about (only Michigan is a good spot for Bernie among swing states): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/